Journal of Management and Science
Vol. 12 No. 1 (2022): Vol 12, Iss 1, Year 2022
Articles

A stochastic approach to forecast project duration

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  • I Neroslavsky,
  • O. Neroslavsky
I Neroslavsky
PMP®, Quality Manager, Institute of IT&Business Administration, Minsk.
O. Neroslavsky
Director, West Long Island, LP, 44-02 11th St, Suite 400E, LIC, NY 11101
DOI: https://doi.org/10.26524/jms.12.15
Published March 31, 2022
Keywords
  • Forecasting, Earned Value Management (EVM), Earned Schedule (ES), Planned duration, Budget at completion, Performance measurement baseline, Compound Poisson process, stopping time.
How to Cite
I Neroslavsky, & O. Neroslavsky. (2022). A stochastic approach to forecast project duration. Journal of Management and Science, 12(1), 75-78. https://doi.org/10.26524/jms.12.15

Abstract

For executives who track projects on a complete / failed basis, at each phase of the project, the project completion date may be adjusted using only stochastic calculations in closed form. The proposed method to predict the final project duration may be interpreted intuitively. The comparative analysis of the effectiveness of the proposed method shows a good computational accuracy of predictions in many cases surpassing the accuracy of existing methods.

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